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Old 6th April 2019, 02:35 AM   #446569  /  #1
Zeluvia
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...041-8/fulltext


Here is the latest "study"



What is your take on their methodology?
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Old 6th April 2019, 04:48 AM   #446578  /  #2
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Old 6th April 2019, 06:52 AM   #446580  /  #3
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Old 6th April 2019, 09:06 AM   #446583  /  #4
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hi everyone, what's going on in this thread?
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Old 6th April 2019, 09:21 AM   #446584  /  #5
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it's difficult to say
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Old 6th April 2019, 11:52 PM   #446591  /  #6
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Well anytime I see the Monte Carlo method has been used, I am skeptical !
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Old 7th April 2019, 12:15 AM   #446592  /  #7
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probably because you don't understand it
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Old 7th April 2019, 12:52 AM   #446593  /  #8
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Well anytime I see the Monte Carlo method has been used, I am skeptical !
i would be more entertained if they used the monty python method
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Old 7th April 2019, 01:18 AM   #446594  /  #9
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or the full monty method.
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Old 7th April 2019, 08:07 AM   #446595  /  #10
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probably because you don't understand it

cool, explain it : )
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Old 7th April 2019, 09:17 AM   #446596  /  #11
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Old 7th April 2019, 07:22 PM   #446597  /  #12
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It seems to me when they are running these study programs they identify variables and then set the parameters for the variables, and the Monte Carlo method is where they run they run the program for each possible value of each variable then compute the average or in this case the mean of the results.


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Old 7th April 2019, 09:34 PM   #446598  /  #13
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hi again everyone. Has this matter resolved itself?
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Old 7th April 2019, 09:54 PM   #446599  /  #14
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Possibly; we'll see
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Old 7th April 2019, 10:30 PM   #446600  /  #15
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Old 8th April 2019, 02:56 PM   #446609  /  #16
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Originally Posted by Zeluvia View Post
It seems to me when they are running these study programs they identify variables and then set the parameters for the variables, and the Monte Carlo method is where they run they run the program for each possible value of each variable then compute the average or in this case the mean of the results.
Not exactly. Sometimes "each possible value" would take far too long. Instead, the values taken by those initial variables are randomized. Monte Carlo is very useful when it's too difficult (or inconvenient) to figure out how the probability distributions in the initial variables transform into the probability distributions for the final results.

The weak point here (i.e., the point where your skepticism may be warranted) is not so much the Monte Carlo method itself, but rather the choice of probability distributions for the initial variables.

(Disclaimer: I have not read what this thread is about, but I do use Monte Carlo at work.)
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Old 8th April 2019, 03:48 PM   #446610  /  #17
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The Headline was "Bad Diet worse than Smoking"



This was the study quoted in the click bait article. There are so many "hedge" words in the study, it makes it hard to believe this would qualify as science. Analysis maybe, but science?


This is the "findings" portion:



Quote:

In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10–12) deaths and 255 million (234–274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1–5] deaths and 70 million [34–118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2–4] deaths and 82 million [59–109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1–4] deaths and 65 million [41–92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.
Here is the Funding portion:


Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.




I have to wonder how much they paid to have these numbers crunched.
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Old 8th April 2019, 03:54 PM   #446611  /  #18
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Old 8th April 2019, 09:43 PM   #446617  /  #19
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So no then
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Old 13th April 2019, 12:33 AM   #446870  /  #20
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Originally Posted by borealis View Post
or the full monty method.
Or the full felson method
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Old 13th April 2019, 01:39 AM   #446874  /  #21
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Now it's finished
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Old 13th April 2019, 07:21 PM   #446887  /  #22
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the WHAT method
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